Warning! Acceptable Unpredictability Ahead!
The Potential Impact of a Hurricane
Warning! Acceptable Unpredictability Ahead!
As I write this post on a Tuesday in September 2024, Hurricane Helene is forming in the Gulf of Mexico. It is predicted to become a category three storm by the time it makes landfall along the panhandle and west coast of Florida.
At least that is the current prediction. But is that acceptable?
Acceptable Predictability is an abstract concept with many applications and at least four variations. Below is a framework for the variations.
Acceptability and Predictability Framework
One way of looking at this framework is to suggest the most positive windowpane—at least at first glance—in the window is where there is Acceptable Predictability. This happens when a situation is predictable, and the outcomes of that situation are acceptable. At times dull. Not impactful. Still acceptable.
Is Acceptable Predictability always a good thing? No. But it does represent something that offers stability. Even if what is predictable is mildly dysfunctional, the people involved may be able to adjust to it or cope with it.
Acceptable Unpredictability is a very interesting windowpane. One way of seeing it is that actions and results are unpredictable yet successful, pleasing, and representative of true innovation. Not dull. Perhaps impactful. Still acceptable.
Is Acceptable Unpredictability always a good thing? No. But it can empower creativity. Cause us to think outside current practices and look at things from a new perspective.
Then there is Unacceptable Predictability. Typically, this may be about something that takes place that can be predicted, but the outcome and impact are negative, disruptive, and even life-taking.
Is Unacceptable Predictability always a bad thing? Initially, yes. It can cause trauma. But the aftermath requires transition and change that can open leaders, organizations, and societies to see things from a whole new perspective. Especially because they cannot go back to how it once was.
The fourth windowpane is Unacceptable Unpredictability. This is the most destructive windowpane. Frightening stuff happens here. This particularly happens if there is no confidence in the ability of the leaders or the organization. This is where leaders take bad actions when everyone hoped the leaders were going to at least take impartial actions. Out of nowhere they do something crazy.
Too many Unacceptable Unpredictability actions can lead to low morale. Derailing the spiritual and strategic moorings of the organization. Real destruction takes place due to multiple and overwhelming disruptions. This situation may inevitably move in an even more radical direction.
Worst to Best
If I were ranking the windowpanes from worst to best, I would start with Unacceptable Unpredictability. Second, I would move to Unacceptable Predictability where you can predict the leader or organization is going to focus on unacceptable actions. Ultimately, they may be able to reposition or redirect actions.
Third, may surprise you. It is Acceptable Predictability. This is a good windowpane, but not a great one. It can long-term lead to a mediocre organization. Or to one that is culturally bounded. It can fail to have continual innovation and fall behind in its significance in an everchanging world. Too many congregations, denominations, and parachurch organizations fall into this trap.
I would call the best leadership windowpane Acceptable Unpredictability. It is the “Wow, I did not see that one coming, but I like it” windowpane. This is where ongoing innovation and acceptable disruptive transition and change takes place. It is not that every action must be unpredictable. It is that enough must be unpredictable that people do not become too comfortable and institutionalize their organization and its forward movement.
Why?
The idea is that at times the actions of leaders are acceptable to those people they lead. At times they are not. Likewise, at times the actions of leaders or an organization are predictable. At other times they are not. I am not sure the perceived ideal is that the actions of leaders are always both acceptable and predictable. I know that unacceptable actions that are also unpredictable are always bad.
If leaders seek to develop faithful – yet empowered – followers, then the general pattern must be that their actions are acceptable. The more genuinely a leader is known by their followers, the more their actions will be predictable. At times predictable actions are because leaders are committed to engaging only in ideas that fit their perspective.
Actions at the edge of organizations can be less acceptable to people. They may also be the best stimulus for moving the organizational mission forward.
If leaders lead from a foundation of a clear and deeply owned vision, then more times than not their actions are predictable. Yet, when leaders become too predictable something lags in terms of creativity and innovation. Overly predictable organizations often do not remain on the forefront of innovation.
The idea is not that leaders and organizations need actions that are always acceptable and predictable. Yes, there is comfort and security in these actions. They are not always good for the long-term future journey of the organization.
Acceptable Unpredictability Began September 21, 1989
The afternoon and evening of Thursday, September 20th brought to South Carolina the imminent crisis of Hurricane Hugo slamming into the coast as a category four storm.
It was an unacceptable and unpredictable situation for the South Carolina Baptist Convention (SCBC) with more than 1800 congregations throughout the state. Major damage in a large part of the state was likely.
Preparation by SCBC for the level of hurricane damage was dreadfully inadequate. The office in charge of disaster response had been assigned to my supervision a few months earlier.
The director of that office was an extreme underperformer without an ounce of strategic insight to what would be needed if the “big one” were to hit us. I sought to address this issue with him during my early months of supervising him.
The load of my overall responsibilities led me to determine we needed to get through the first six months or so together, and then I would lead the development of a comprehensive strategy.
An effective strategy was beyond what the director understood. His strategy was one of “I’ll call Hubert!” Hubert was a wonderful senior adult individual who was the volunteer disaster response coordinator for the state.
Yes, Hubert had a network of volunteers. But not near enough. Plus, an inadequate resource base for what was coming.
Hurricane Hugo hit the state. Widespread damage occurred. Parts of the coast were devastated.
The director called Hubert. Then got in his car to drive around the coastal counties. All he could do was look around and cry. Long-term we told him to stay out on the field.
What we did in Columbia was to quickly organize something that did not exist. It was a command center for disaster response for SCBC. An associate staff person and I organized the center and worked it 12 to 15 hours per day for the next 30 days.
Resources from all over the country from Baptist groups much more organized than SC Baptists arrived by the tracker trailer load. The coordination system Southern Baptists had in place swung into action to support us.
Amazing things happened that were totally unpredictable. But they were extremely acceptable.
The term “millions” is applicable to the financial donations we received, and to the value of commodities delivered to various locations around the state.
Out of this came a major, ongoing disaster response movement in South Carolina among Baptists.
Today when someone asks about disaster response by South Carolina Baptists, they do not suggest it is Unacceptable Unpredictability as they would have on September 20th.
They say that beginning on September 21, 1989 and continuing until today there is Acceptable Predictability about SC Baptists and their disaster response.
Or better yet Acceptable Unpredictability in that SC Baptists can do more than anyone could have expected or imagined or predicted in 1989. It is amazing to watch them. People still go “Wow”!
OR . . .
You must have a plan just in case it becomes your Disaster.
George, You are so on point. You taught me how to do the best we could do and I felt we did a good job. I will be forever thankful for your leadership 35 years ago.